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How Will Cubans Vote in November?

This may surprise you but 50 percent of Cubans under 30 are now registered Democrats. The Republican stronghold on the Cuban community is loosening. Amazingly, two congressional seats are considered open contests in the Cuban community of South Florida. Democrats Joe García and Raúl Martínez both actually have a chance at winning against their Republican counterparts.

The old guard is changing in Little Havana. This is reality. The embargo has not worked and many Cubans are questioning American policy on Cuba. They want to be able to bless their families back home. Many of them want to travel back and forth to Cuba. Of course, there is the obvious fact that after nearly 50 years of embargo and sanctions, Cuba has remained the same.

If the Cubans split their vote or go 60/40 (McCain 60, Obama 40) Sen. Obama will win Florida and thus the presidency. Couple this with a strong group of Puerto Ricans who vote Democrat in Central Florida and this is a realistic scenario.

My advice to the Republicans? You must shore up the Cuban vote or you will be out in the House, the Senate and the Presidency. The status quo isn't working and the Republican party needs to speak to other needs outside of the standard "embargo speak." As Bill O'Reilly says, "And that's the memo."
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posted by Ricardo González on August 18, 2008.

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